I've believed him to be dead for quite some time now.
He was maintaining a presence, even while in hiding, to begin with.
Then, either something happened to him, or he wisely decided to use the "Look! It's Iraq!" distraction as an opportunity to fade away completely.
For all intents and purposes, I think we've seen the last we'll ever see of him.
Even if he were alive and among the populace, who is going to look at Bin Laden and actually believe they are looking at Bin Laden?
Me though, I think he's dead. Moreso, I think America knows he's dead.
(Conspiracy theory!) They've known he was dead for a while. No way Bush can be so relentless in Iraq, yet he gives up looking for the perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks.
By leaving him alive and in hiding, it prevents a new figure from taking his place, every new prospective leader exists within Laden's shadow.
It also makes the enemy appear weak with their leader on the run, which affects the morale on both sides of the conflict.
It also keeps the main objective in play. Whether it be the hunt for Osama, or the hunt for weapons of mass destruction. Secondary objectives aren't as catchy with the people. (Democracy just isn't as "cool" as Weapons of Mass Destruction)
Notice how Saddam isn't very much in the media anymore? He didn't have weapons of mass destruction and he simply doesn't live up to the monster of his portrayal.
Osama = Dead
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